What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Monaco and 0.8 from Gornik Zabrze, so Monaco come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Gornik Zabrze come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Monaco to win. Monaco are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.8), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Gornik Zabrze to spoil this.
