What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from PAOK and 1.0 from Brann, so PAOK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
PAOK come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: PAOK to win. PAOK are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Brann a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 58%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
