How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Shkendija and 1.3 from Hibernian, so Shkendija come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Shkendija come into this on two straight defeats. Hibernian come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shkendija to win. Shkendija are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.3), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.65, which works out at about 38 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Hibernian to spoil this. We only make this about 47%, so it's far from a lock.
