What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Twente and 1.2 from Qarabag, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Twente come into this on three straight wins. Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Twente to win. Twente are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.2), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.69, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Qarabag to spoil this. We make it about 58% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
