How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Twente to win 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Twente and 1.2 from Qarabag, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Qarabag come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Twente to win. Twente are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-1.2), and we make them about 58% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
