Vikingur Reykjavik v Borac Banja Luka: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Vikingur Reykjavik (Draw No Bet) 65%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Vikingur Reykjavik and 0.7 from Borac Banja Luka, so Vikingur Reykjavik come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Borac Banja Luka come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Vikingur Reykjavik (Draw No Bet). Vikingur Reykjavik are favoured here (xG 1.2-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Vikingur Reykjavik defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.