How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals; the game finished with 3. We made Eibar to win 87%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
CD Pamplona host Eibar in a Copa del Rey tie on 10 November. The match is a knockout game, so both clubs need a win to stay alive. Pamplona are playing at home while Eibar travel. The two sides sit somewhere in the middle of the table, but the numbers show Eibar are clearly the stronger side. An open game is expected, with chances at both ends.
Pamplona have not had many games to look at, but the recent form we can see is not encouraging. They have struggled to find the net, with only a 24 % chance of scoring at all according to the figures. The expected goal tally for them is just 0.6. That means they are likely to sit back and hope to catch a break, rather than push forward.
Eibar come into the match after eight games that produced four wins, two draws and two defeats. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw with Almería at home. Before that they lost 2-0 away to Córdoba, then drew 1-1 with Mallorca at home, and suffered a 3-1 defeat away to Oviedo. They bounced back with a 3-1 win away at Albacete and a 3-2 victory at home over Las Palmas. In those eight games they have scored 15 goals and let in 11, kept one clean sheet and failed to score only once. Five of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them, showing they are comfortable in open affairs.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have tended to produce goals on both sides. The numbers we have for this encounter point to a similar pattern – an expected 4.1 goals in total, with Pamplona at 0.6 and Eibar at 3.4. That suggests Eibar will dominate the attack while Pamplona may find it hard to break through. The match is likely to be an open contest with Eibar creating most of the chances.
Our pick is Eibar to win. The price of 1.19 is longer than our own reading, but the odds still look good. We see an 87 % chance of Eibar coming out on top, based on their recent form and the goal expectations. For the pick to go wrong, Pamplona would need to score early and hold on, or Eibar would have to falter dramatically in attack. Both seem unlikely, so backing Eibar outright is the straightforward way to go.
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