How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made SE Palmeiras to win 38%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Club Cerro Porteño and 1.2 from SE Palmeiras, so SE Palmeiras come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: SE Palmeiras to win. SE Palmeiras shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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