How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Estudiantes de La Plata (Draw No Bet) 65%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Estudiantes de La Plata and 0.7 from SC Corinthians Paulista, so Estudiantes de La Plata come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
SC Corinthians Paulista come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Estudiantes de La Plata (Draw No Bet). Estudiantes de La Plata are favoured here (xG 1.3-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Estudiantes de La Plata defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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