How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made SE Palmeiras to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from SE Palmeiras and 0.7 from LDU de Quito, so SE Palmeiras come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
SE Palmeiras come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: SE Palmeiras to win. SE Palmeiras are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.7), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.27, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
