Estudiantes de La Plata v SC Corinthians Paulista: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Estudiantes de La Plata (Draw No Bet) 65%, but the stake came back in full.

What we said beforehand

Estudiantes de La Plata host SC Corinthians Paulista in a CONMEBOL Libertadores group match on 10 September 2026. In the four-team table Estudiantes sit second with nine points from six games and a +1 goal difference. Corinthians lead the group with eleven points and a +4 goal difference. Flamengo sit just above Estudiantes, seven points clear of them, while Independiente Medellín are two points behind. A win for the home side would move them level on points with Flamengo and keep them in the hunt for the top spot. A loss would drop them to third and give Corinthians a chance to pull away.

Estudiantes have not been in great form over their last eight matches. They lost 1-0 away to Vélez Sarsfield, then drew 0-0 twice at home with Newell’s Old Boys. A 2-0 defeat away at Sarmiento Junín followed, before a bright 4-0 home win over Gimnasia L.P. Their most recent game was a 2-0 loss away to Dep. Riestra. In those eight games they have scored seven and let in six. They have kept four clean sheets but have failed to find the net in six matches. At home they have not lost in the last four games, recording two wins and two draws.

Corinthians come into the fixture on a run of four straight defeats. Their last eight results include a 2-1 loss at home to Chapecoense, a 1-0 home loss to Santos, a 2-1 away defeat to Coritiba and a 2-1 home loss to Cruzeiro. Before that they beat Bragantino 2-0 away and drew 0-0 at home with Athletico-PR. In those eight games they have scored nine and conceded eight, keeping three clean sheets while failing to score in two. On the road their recent three outings have produced a win, a draw and a loss, showing they can pick up points away from home.

The two clubs have met before in this competition, and those meetings have always been tight affairs with few goals. The numbers we have suggest a low-scoring contest, and the recent defensive records of both sides support that view. Estudiantes have kept a clean sheet in half of their recent games and Corinthians have done so in three of eight. Both teams have struggled to score, especially Estudiantes who have not scored in six of their last eight matches. Expect a cautious game, likely decided by a single chance.

We back Estudiantes de La Plata with a Draw No Bet stake. The price of 1.54 matches our reading of the match. Our expectation is around 1.9 goals in total, with Estudiantes averaging 1.2 and Corinthians 0.7. The pick gives us a refund if the game ends level, so only a loss for Estudiantes would hurt us. For the bet to go wrong, Corinthians would need to break their recent defensive slump and score early, or Estudiantes would have to fail to find a goal despite the home advantage. With a 65 % chance of success, we think the price is attractive.