How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Hajduk Split to win 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Hajduk Split and 0.7 from HNK Gorica, so Hajduk Split come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
HNK Gorica come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Hajduk Split to win. Hajduk Split are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.7), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Hajduk Split have won four of the last five meetings.
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