How it turned out
We projected about 4.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Dinamo Zagreb to win 83%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Rudeš and 3.2 from Dinamo Zagreb, so Dinamo Zagreb come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Dinamo Zagreb to win. Dinamo Zagreb shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-3.2), and we make them about 85% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Dinamo Zagreb have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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