How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made NK Varaždin to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
HNK Gorica host NK Varaždin at home in the Croatia HNL on 14 September 2026. Gorica sit at the bottom of the table, tenth out of ten, with just one point from six matches and a goal difference of minus eight. They are in the relegation zone and only two points ahead of Rudeš, who sit just above them. Varaždin are much higher up, sitting fourth with thirteen points from six games and a positive goal difference of six. They sit just behind Dinamo Zagreb and two points ahead of Rijeka. Both teams have similar expected goal numbers – about one goal each – which points to a tight, low-scoring contest.
Our pick is NK Varaždin to win. The price of 2.15 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so it looks attractive. Varaždin have a 71 % chance of scoring at all and a 36 % chance of scoring twice or more, while Gorica only have a 62 % chance to find the net and a 26 % chance to hit a brace. The odds of a Varaždin win are about 39 % according to our view, and we think they are the better side on the road. Backing them outright is the straightforward way to go, unless the game turns into a defensive stalemate, which would hurt the pick.
Recent results
NK Varaždin have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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