How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Rijeka to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from NK Lokomotiva and 1.4 from Rijeka, so Rijeka come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Rijeka to win. Rijeka shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.4), and we make them about 44% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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