How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Dinamo Zagreb to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Osijek and 1.9 from Dinamo Zagreb, so Dinamo Zagreb come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Dinamo Zagreb to win. Dinamo Zagreb shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.9), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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