How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made NK Istra 1961 to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from NK Istra 1961 and 0.9 from Rudeš, so NK Istra 1961 come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: NK Istra 1961 to win. NK Istra 1961 are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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