How it turned out
We projected about 4.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made The New Saints to win 88%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Airbus UK Broughton and 3.5 from The New Saints, so The New Saints come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
The New Saints come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: The New Saints to win. The New Saints shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-3.5), and we make them about 90% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 88 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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