What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Ammanford and 2.7 from Caernarfon, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Ammanford come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Caernarfon to win. Caernarfon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.7), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
