How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Caernarfon to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Ammanford and 2.7 from Caernarfon, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Caernarfon to win. Caernarfon shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.7), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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