Ammanford v Penybont: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Penybont to win 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.7 goals from Ammanford and 2.4 from Penybont, so Penybont come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Penybont come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Penybont to win. Penybont shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.4), and we make them about 77% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.