How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Barry Town to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Colwyn Bay and 1.3 from Barry Town, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Colwyn Bay come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barry Town to win. Barry Town shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.95, which works out at about 34 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Colwyn Bay have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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