How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 10. Both teams scored. We made Caernarfon to win 52%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Caernarfon and 1.4 from Cambrian United, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Cambrian United come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Caernarfon to win. Caernarfon are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.4), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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