How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Barry Town (Draw No Bet) 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Barry Town and 0.7 from Airbus UK Broughton, so Barry Town come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Barry Town (Draw No Bet). Barry Town are favoured here (xG 2.0-0.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Barry Town defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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