What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from The New Saints and 0.6 from Colwyn Bay, so The New Saints come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: The New Saints to win. The New Saints are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.6), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Colwyn Bay only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty.