How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made The New Saints to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from The New Saints and 0.6 from Colwyn Bay, so The New Saints come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
The New Saints come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: The New Saints to win. The New Saints are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.6), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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