How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Penybont or Draw 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Penybont and 1.1 from Flint Town United, so Penybont come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Penybont or Draw. This covers Penybont or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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