How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Connah's Quay Nomads to win 51%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Colwyn Bay and 1.5 from Connah's Quay Nomads, so Connah's Quay Nomads come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Connah's Quay Nomads to win. Connah's Quay Nomads shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 52% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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