How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Llandudno FC to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Colwyn Bay and 1.4 from Llandudno FC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Llandudno FC to win. Llandudno FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.4), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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