How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Connah's Quay Nomads to win 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Connah’s Quay Nomads host Airbus UK Broughton at home in the Cymru Premier on 15 September. The Nomads sit fifth in the 16-team table with 16 points from eight games and a healthy +12 goal difference. One place above them, Penybont sit on 18 points, while Llandudno sit just below with 15. Airbus are ninth, on 12 points and a modest +2 goal difference. They are in the part of the table that still offers a chance of European qualification, with Colwyn Bay a point ahead and Cambrian United level on points just below. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, but the Nomads have more to lose if they slip, while Airbus are trying to climb back into the euro places.
The Nomads have been in good form recently. They beat Newtown 3-1, then edged Bangor City 2-1, and followed that with a 4-0 thrashing of Caernarfon. Those three games give them a run of seven goals scored and only two conceded. The run shows a side that can find the net regularly and keep clean sheets, which matches the strong numbers we have for them in this fixture.
Airbus have had a mixed spell. They lost 3-0 at Celtic, then were beaten 4-1 by Kilmarnock, before turning the tide with a 2-2 draw against Flint Town. Their most recent game, the draw, saw them score twice but also concede twice, leaving them with a goal average of one per game in the last three outings. It underlines a side that can score but also lets opponents in easily, which fits the lower scoring expectations we have for them here.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been open and produced goals at both ends. The numbers we expect for this match – about 2.4 goals for the Nomads and 0.8 for Airbus – suggest a similar pattern. The Nomads are likely to dominate possession and create chances, while Airbus will look for a quick strike and try to stay compact. The chance of the Nomads scoring at least once is very high, and they have a strong chance of scoring twice or more. Airbus have just over a fifty-percent chance of getting on the board at all and a low chance of scoring twice.
We pick Connah’s Quay Nomads to win. The price on offer is 1.48, which is longer than our own reading of the game, so it looks attractive. We think the Nomads have about a 78 % chance of coming out on top, based on their better league position, stronger goal difference and recent form. For this to go wrong, Airbus would need to score early and then defend resolutely, limiting the Nomads to a single goal or a draw. If the Nomads fail to convert the many chances they are likely to create, the price could pay off for the underdog. As it stands, backing the Nomads looks the cleaner play.
Recent results
Connah's Quay Nomads have won four of the last four meetings.
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