Holywell Town v Colwyn Bay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Colwyn Bay to win 66%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Holywell Town host Colwyn Bay at home in a Cymru Premier clash on 15 September 2026. Holywell sit bottom of the table, 16th out of 16, with just one point from eight games and a goal difference of minus 18. They are already in the relegation zone and only a point separates them from Ammanford above. Colwyn Bay sit in the middle of the pack, eighth with 13 points from the same number of matches and a goal difference of minus 2, putting them in the European-qualification places. A win for Holywell could lift them out of the drop zone, while a loss would keep Colwyn Bay comfortably in the safe half of the table.

Holywell Town have struggled to find the net this season. In their last three outings they have been shut out each time, losing 3-0 to Celtic and 4-1 to Kilmarnock before another defeat that also left them goalless. That string of three games without a goal adds up to nine goals conceded and none scored. Their attack looks barren and the defence is leaking heavily, which makes the task of turning things around at home a steep one.

Colwyn Bay have been more active in front of goal. Their recent form includes a 2-1 win over a fellow mid-table side, a 3-2 victory against a lower-ranked opponent and a narrow 1-0 defeat where they still managed to find the net. Their most recent match ended 1-0, a close loss that showed they can score even when the result does not go their way. Across those three games they have scored six times while conceding three, indicating a side that can create chances and keep the scoreline respectable.

When the two teams meet, the numbers suggest an open game with chances on both ends. Holywell have a 69 per cent chance of scoring at least once and a 32 per cent chance of finding the net twice or more. Colwyn Bay are even more likely to hit the target, with a 93 per cent chance of scoring and a 72 per cent chance of scoring two or more goals. The expected total of 3.8 goals points to a match where both sides will look to attack, but the gap in quality is clear.

We pick Colwyn Bay to win. The price of 1.29 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, making it a good price for a side that should be stronger. Our chance of the pick hitting is about 66 per cent. For this to go wrong, Holywell would need to find a sudden surge in goals, scoring at least twice while keeping Colwyn Bay to a single strike. If that happens, the result could flip, but the odds are against it. Backing Colwyn Bay outright is the simplest and most sensible choice.