How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Penybont to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Penybont and 0.9 from Briton Ferry Llansawel, so Penybont come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Penybont come into this on two straight wins. Briton Ferry Llansawel come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Penybont to win. Penybont are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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