How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Caernarfon to win 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Llandudno FC and 2.0 from Caernarfon, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Caernarfon come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Caernarfon to win. Caernarfon shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-2.0), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
All two of the last meetings were drawn.
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