How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Penybont to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Penybont and 0.9 from Colwyn Bay, so Penybont come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Penybont to win. Penybont are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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