What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Penybont and 0.9 from Colwyn Bay, so Penybont come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Penybont come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Penybont to win. Penybont are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.9), and we make them about 51% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Colwyn Bay a draw or better. We make it about 51% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
