What to expect
We expect about 2.6 goals from The New Saints and 0.8 from Barry Town, so The New Saints come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
The New Saints come into this on three straight wins. Barry Town come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: The New Saints to win. The New Saints are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-0.8), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Barry Town a draw or better. We make it about 78% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
