How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made The New Saints to win 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from The New Saints and 0.9 from Connah's Quay Nomads, so The New Saints come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
The New Saints come into this on five straight wins. Connah's Quay Nomads come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: The New Saints to win. The New Saints are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The New Saints have won four of the last five meetings.
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