How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Caernarfon to win 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Airbus UK Broughton and 2.3 from Caernarfon, so Caernarfon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Airbus UK Broughton come into this on three straight wins. Caernarfon come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Caernarfon to win. Caernarfon shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-2.3), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Caernarfon have won five of the last five meetings.
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