Ammanford v Haverfordwest: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Haverfordwest to win 64%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.7 goals from Ammanford and 2.1 from Haverfordwest, so Haverfordwest come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Haverfordwest to win. Haverfordwest shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-2.1), and we make them about 66% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.