Barry Town v Trefelin BGC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Barry Town to win 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.5 goals from Barry Town and 0.6 from Trefelin BGC, so Barry Town come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Barry Town come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Barry Town to win. Barry Town are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.6), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.