How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Penybont to win 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Trefelin BGC and 2.3 from Penybont, so Penybont come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Penybont to win. Penybont shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-2.3), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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