How it turned out
We projected about 4.4 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made The New Saints to win 94%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Trefelin BGC host The New Saints at home in a Cymru Premier clash on 26 September 2026. Trefelin sit 13th out of 16 with just three points from ten games and a goal difference of minus-20, deep in the relegation zone. The New Saints sit top of the table with 28 points, a +22 goal difference and a four-point lead over second-placed Penybont. Both clubs have something to play for – Trefelin need points to climb out of the drop zone while The New Saints look to extend their lead at the summit.
Trefelin have not won in their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-1 draw away at Briton Ferry Llansawel. Before that they lost 4-0 at home to Cambrian United and 1-0 at home to Penybont. In those three games they have scored only once and let in six goals. They failed to find the net in two of the three fixtures and have only one game with three or more goals, which also saw both sides score.
The New Saints come into this fixture on a three-game winning streak. Their last three results were a 2-1 home win over Llandudno FC, a 5-0 home victory against Flint Town United and a 2-0 away win at Airbus UK Broughton. Prior to that they lost 3-2 away to Celje, 2-0 at home to Panathinaikos and 1-0 at home to Djurgardens IF. Over their last eight games they have scored 14 and conceded nine, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Their recent road form is one win and two losses.
When the two sides have met before, the games have produced goals at both ends, and the numbers suggest a similar pattern this time. Trefelin’s chance of scoring at all is low, about 28 % and only 5 % for scoring twice or more. The New Saints, by contrast, are likely to find the net in almost every game – a 99 % chance of scoring and an 89 % chance of scoring two or more. The expected tally points to an open match with The New Saints scoring around four goals and Trefelin less than one.
We pick The New Saints to win. The price of 1.03 matches our view of the game and the chance of this result happening is about 94 %. The New Saints are the clear favourite on the numbers and have the quality to score freely while keeping a clean sheet. For our pick to fail, Trefelin would need to break their scoring drought and find a way to stop The New Saints from reaching their usual goal output, which looks unlikely given the recent form of both teams.
Recent results
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