How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made AEK Larnaca (Draw No Bet) 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from AEK Larnaca and 0.9 from APOEL Nicosia, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca (Draw No Bet). AEK Larnaca are favoured here (xG 1.4-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a AEK Larnaca defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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