How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Aris Limassol to win 47%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Aris Limassol and 1.0 from Apollon Limassol, so Aris Limassol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Aris Limassol to win. Aris Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.0), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.45, which works out at about 41 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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