How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made AEK Larnaca to win 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from AEK Larnaca and 0.6 from Omonia Aradippou, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Omonia Aradippou come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.0-0.6), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no drawn.
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