How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made AEL Limassol to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from AEL Limassol and 1.1 from Omonia 29 Maiou, so AEL Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
AEL Limassol come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEL Limassol to win. AEL Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.1), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AEL Limassol have won two of the last three meetings, with one drawn.
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