How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Pafos FC to win 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Nea Salamis host Pafos FC at home in the Cyprus First Division on 26 October 2026. Nea Salamis sit 12th of 14, four points from six games and already in the relegation zone with a –4 goal difference. Just two points separate them from safety, as Omonia Aradippou sit one place above and Krasava Ypsonas FC sit just below. Pafos FC are 7th, also six games in, with eleven points and a +4 goal difference. They sit level on points with APOEL Nicosia above them and three points clear of Omonia 29 Maiou below. The clash could move the table a little, but both clubs are more concerned with staying clear of the drop.
Nea Salamis have played five matches in their recent run, winning two and losing three. Their latest win was a 4-0 home victory over APEA Akrotiri, followed by a 4-2 loss away at Apollon Limassol, a 2-1 defeat at APOEL Nicosia, a 3-0 home win over Anorthosis and a 2-1 away loss to AEL Limassol. In those five games they have scored 11 and let in eight, keeping two clean sheets. Every match had at least three goals and both sides scored in three of them, showing that Nea Salamis can find the net but also concede fairly often.
Pafos FC’s last eight fixtures give a mixed picture: three wins, two draws and three defeats. Their most recent result was a 1-1 home draw with Riga FC, preceded by a 0-0 home stalemate with APOEL Nicosia. Before that they fell 3-1 away to Atalanta, then beat Anorthosis 3-1 on the road, lost 2-0 at home to AEL Limassol and earned a 1-0 away win at AEK Larnaca. In total they have scored ten and allowed nine, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Their last four away outings produced two wins and two losses, and they are coming into this match after only four days’ rest.
The two sides have met before, but the exact scorelines are not listed, so we cannot draw on a head-to-head record. Based on the recent form, the game is likely to be open, with chances at both ends. Nea Salamis have shown they can score several goals, while Pafos FC have a higher probability of finding the net and of scoring more than once. The numbers suggest an average of three goals in total, so we expect a fairly lively encounter.
We back Pafos FC to win. The price of 1.62 is longer than our own reading of the game, but the odds still look attractive. Pafos FC are the stronger side on the goal expectations – 2.2 compared with 0.9 for Nea Salamis – and they have an 86 % chance to score at all and a 62 % chance to score twice or more. Nea Salamis only have a 53 % chance to get on the scoresheet. If Pafos FC fail to break down a disciplined Nea Salamis defence or if the home side manage to hold a clean sheet, the result could be different, but we think the balance of probability – about 67 % – favours an away win.
Recent results
Pafos FC have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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