How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Apollon Limassol to win 49%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Apollon Limassol and 0.9 from Anorthosis, so Apollon Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Apollon Limassol to win. Apollon Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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