What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Nea Salamis and 2.0 from AEK Larnaca, so AEK Larnaca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AEK Larnaca to win. AEK Larnaca shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.0), and we make them about 68% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Nea Salamis only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. At around 68% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
