APOEL Nicosia v AEL Limassol: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. We made APOEL Nicosia to win 57%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.9 goals from APOEL Nicosia and 0.9 from AEL Limassol, so APOEL Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: APOEL Nicosia to win. APOEL Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.