What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Apollon Limassol and 0.8 from Omonia 29 Maiou, so Apollon Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Apollon Limassol to win. Apollon Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.8), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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