How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Pafos FC to win 68%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Karmiotissa and 2.2 from Pafos FC, so Pafos FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Pafos FC to win. Pafos FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-2.2), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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