How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Aris Limassol to win 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.6 goals from Aris Limassol and 0.8 from Karmiotissa, so Aris Limassol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Karmiotissa come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Aris Limassol to win. Aris Limassol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.8), and we make them about 73% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Aris Limassol have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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