How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Omonia Nicosia to win 81%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Omonia Nicosia and 0.6 from Krasava Ypsonas FC, so Omonia Nicosia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Krasava Ypsonas FC come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Omonia Nicosia to win. Omonia Nicosia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.6), and we make them about 83% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.21, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Omonia Nicosia have won two of the last two meetings.
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